Crossroads Commentary | 2 April 2025
On April 3–4, leaders from the European Union and Central Asian states will gather for a high-level summit in Uzbekistan. This is the second such gathering in just two years, although the first one was not called a summit. The setting underscores growing momentum in EU–Central Asia relations, fueled by shifting global geopolitics, growing interest in connectivity, and shared challenges around climate, energy, and security.
But momentum alone does not guarantee progress. Despite an expanding agenda and increasing visibility, the EU–Central Asia relationship has yet to demonstrate strategic direction and mutual expectations. This summit offers an opportunity to sharpen that focus. Below are five questions that the summit should help answer if the partnership is to move beyond goodwill and into concrete outcomes.
1. What is the EU’s strategic priority in Central Asia—stability, energy, connectivity, or values?
The EU’s engagement in Central Asia spans everything from development aid to green energy to democracy promotion. But trying to do everything risks doing nothing well. As resources and political bandwidth are limited, will this summit reveal where the EU’s real priorities lie? Is Brussels ready to concentrate its efforts on a few critical areas—or will it continue to spread itself thin across an ever-expanding agenda?
2. Will the EU’s Global Gateway translate into real, region-shaping connectivity projects?
The Global Gateway is often touted as the EU’s alternative to China’s Belt and Road. Central Asia, keen to diversify its external partners, is paying attention. But so far, implementation has lagged behind the rhetoric. Will the summit bring concrete commitments (e.g., funded transport corridors, digital infrastructure plans, customs harmonization efforts), or will “connectivity” remain a promising slogan without substance?
3. Are Central Asian states ready to articulate a collective vision for engaging the EU?
While much depends on what the EU brings to the table, this summit is also a test of Central Asia’s regional agency. Will the five countries coordinate positions, propose shared priorities, or continue to approach Brussels individually? Just as importantly, can they engage the EU on their own terms—navigating but not being constrained by the interests of Russia and China? Without a clear, collective voice and strategic independence, Central Asia risks remaining a recipient of external strategies, rather than a co-author of its own partnerships.
4. How does the EU plan to engage with sensitive governance issues without undermining its influence?
The EU remains one of the few partners willing to speak about governance, human rights, and the rule of law in Central Asia. But doing so has become harder as regimes become more assertive and less tolerant of external criticism. U.S. leadership on these issues has waned in recent years (and months, and weeks), leaving the EU increasingly alone in defending democratic norms. Will the summit show how the EU intends to uphold its values in a way that is credible yet constructive? Can it support civic space and accountability without alienating partner governments?
5. Can the EU and Central Asia build a strategic partnership in a crowded geopolitical neighborhood?
This summit happens in a region navigating complex relationships—with Russia deeply embedded, China economically dominant, and the U.S. largely absent. Can the EU articulate what makes its offer distinctive, and how it fits into Central Asia’s multi-vector diplomacy? Do Brussels and the region’s capitals share a common vision for engaging (or containing) the influence of Russia and China? Without clarity on this broader geopolitical context, even well-intentioned cooperation may remain shallow.
Summits can easily drift into a diplomatic routine—photo ops, friendly statements, and recycled initiatives. However, this week’s meeting has the potential to mark a turning point in EU–Central Asia relations. If the leaders involved are willing to be honest about their goals, realistic about what can be done together, and committed to pushing through the work required, these five questions could help move the partnership beyond formality—and into real substance.